The Stack Signal — May 13, 2026

The headline today is the CPI print, and it came in hot again. Energy costs are spreading through the broader basket, bond bears are reloading rate hike wagers, and the market spent most of the session chasing its own tail trying to figure out whether to sell metals on rate hike fears or buy them on inflation confirmation. Gold pulled back from the overnight highs around $4,738 that the Asian and early London sessions had established, settling near $4,697 by close — a roughly $40 give-back from the top. Silver held up comparatively well, closing at $88.16. That resilience in silver is worth noting. When gold gets hit on rate hike fear selling, silver usually gets dragged harder. Today it did not, which tells you something about the underlying bid in that market.

Connect the dots across today's articles and the picture sharpens considerably. You have a hot CPI print driving bond bears to reload rate hike bets. You have the Financial Times reporting that the incoming Fed chair — likely Kevin Warsh — walks into an impossible situation: resurgent inflation on one side, an impatient White House demanding easier policy on the other. That is not a recipe for credible monetary tightening. That is a recipe for continued real rate suppression regardless of what the nominal fed funds rate does. The mainstream read on today was that higher rates are coming and that is bad for gold. That read is incomplete. The Fed has been behind the curve on this inflation cycle for years. One or two more hikes into a structurally inflationary environment does not restore purchasing power. It just gives the next chair cover to pivot when something breaks. Your stack does not care about the nominal rate. It cares about the real rate, and real rates are still deeply negative when you price them against what energy and food are actually doing to household budgets.

For physical stackers, today's action is mostly noise with one useful signal embedded in it. The gold/silver ratio sitting at 53.3 is the number I keep coming back to. At these spot prices, silver is still historically cheap relative to gold. If you are adding to your stack right now, the ratio argues for silver. The price action today — silver holding ground while gold gave back intraday gains — is consistent with that thesis. Do not let the rate hike headlines shake you out of physical. The people selling paper gold on Fed fear today are the same people who will be chasing physical in six months when the pivot narrative returns. Stack on the fear, not against it.

Overnight, watch the Treasury market. The bond bears reloading today means the 10-year yield is under pressure to push higher, and if we get any follow-through selling in Treasuries during Asian hours, you will see gold test the $4,680 level as the knee-jerk paper trade continues. That would be a buy signal for physical, not a warning. Also watch whether the Warsh Fed chair story develops further — any official confirmation or denial out of Washington could move the metals overnight as traders reprice the policy outlook. The real tell will be whether gold can reclaim $4,720 in early London trading. If it does, today's pullback was nothing but a shakeout.